Electro-Shock Remedy for Sluggish Learners within the Ukraine Electrical Conflict (Half III)


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Yves right here. The massive information story this morning is that Russia has resumed critical pounding of Ukraine’s electrical grid. As John Helmer defined in his preliminary put up on that subject and continues at this time, Russia has been focusing on transmission, not era, and specifically, energy traces going to areas Ukraine is contesting, in addition to the prepare system within the east of the nation. Be aware Ukraine’s rail system depends primarily on electrical trains; diesel engines can even run on these tracks, however solely a small minority of Ukraine’s  prepare engines are diesel. And since the railroad gauge in Ukraine is completely different from that in Europe, the West can’t give Ukraine diesel engine substitutes. And naturally, utilizing the few diesel engines extra intensively on the margin drains scarce diesel shares sooner.

Helmer mentions that Rybar is a key outlet for monitoring these assaults. The morning updates from Rybar via machine translation (emphasis unique):

This morning, the RF Armed Forces launched huge strikes on substations that transmit electrical energy from hydroelectric energy crops to the facility grid. The intermediate purpose is to deprive the enemy of the chance to compensate for the power deficit.

One of many strikes was carried out on an open switchgear (ORU) of the Kaniv hydroelectric energy station within the Cherkasy area .

The hydroelectric energy station is situated on the center reaches of the Dnieper, helps to compensate for the power scarcity within the Kiev area , and on the similar time has the flexibility to switch the generated electrical energy to the east of the nation by means of the switchgear of the Kremenchug hydroelectric energy station .

The subsequent electricity-related entry:

A hearth defeat was inflicted on the Kremenchug hydroelectric energy station .

That is the third HPP on the Dnieper with a capability of 686 MW.

Energy customers within the east and heart of the nation are provided from the HPP by means of an open switchgear (OSG) of 330 kV. The switchgear itself is a key level of the 330 kV high-voltage line stretching by means of Krivoy Rog (PS Pervomayskaya 330), Cherkasy (PS Cherkasy 330) and the east of the nation (SS Kremenchug 330).

A blow to the substation reduces the opportunity of transmitting electrical energy to the economic areas of Krivoy Rog, Cherkasy, Poltava and partly Kharkov areas.

And:

One of many morning strikes in Zaporizhzhia hit the 330 kV Pravoberezhnaya substation , linked with the DneproGES . The Dnieper HPP is essentially the most highly effective of the facility crops situated on the Dnieper (capability 1548 MW). A big node offered a big function within the era of the area after the shutdown of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. Wherever the missiles hit, the injury will nonetheless be important, since it should nonetheless be extraordinarily troublesome to make use of it at full load – even when the turbines weren’t broken

Yet one more Rybar standing report:

There have been two explosions this morning in Kharkov .

No less than one of many hits fell on the Zalyutino 330kV substation: the substation was already hit – autotransformers had been put out of motion every time (though in whole there have been already extra hits than autotransformers on the substation, however these are already nuances).

Substation Zalyutino offers electrical energy transmission from CHPP-5 and Zmievskaya TPP.

After the strikes, trams, trolleybuses and the metro stopped working within the metropolis, and electrical energy was partially misplaced.

‘Nuff for now.

Once more recall that the transmission traces in Ukraine are Soviet-built to outdated Soviet requirements (750/330kV) and have been up to date with Russian tools. Nobody within the West can substitute the transformers and different crucial components Russia is destroying.

By John Helmer who has been the longest constantly serving overseas correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to have directed his personal bureau impartial of single nationwide or industrial ties. Helmer has additionally been a professor of political science, and advisor to authorities heads in Greece, the US, and Asia. Initially revealed at Dances with Bears

Till capitulation in battle, the successful facet is the one which learns quickest. The loser is the slowpoke.

In Washington, the turnover of workers inside President Biden’s White Home has been so fast, the training course of for the brand new workers has been virtually as retarded because the incapacity to study has been accelerating on the a part of Biden himself.*

On October 25, the Washington Post revealed how protracted this state of incomprehension is on the US facet. “Russia’s ongoing assaults on Ukraine’s power infrastructure have been so methodical and damaging that administration officers say they’re being led by energy specialists who know precisely which targets will trigger essentially the most injury to Ukraine’s energy grid.”

5 days earlier, on October 20, the Russian Ministry of Protection had made this official for the primary time in its every day battle bulletins. “In the course of the day [October 19-20], the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continued to strike with high-precision long-range air-based weapons on the army management and power techniques of Ukraine. All assigned objects have been hit.”

Six days earlier than that, the Kiev regime made it official. In a press interview on October 14, the chief government of the DTEK energy utility, Maxim Timchenko, mentioned: “These strikes aren’t aimed toward producing amenities to forestall us from producing electrical energy however at connection techniques tied to the Ukrainian power system. They hit open switchgears, transformers, switches, so {that a} station that may produce electrical energy can’t be linked to the unified energy system. That’s, the important thing targets are Ukrenergo transformer high-voltage substations and energy distribution tools at thermal energy crops. What [are] the techniques behind this? Since Soviet occasions, we’ve got constructed unified power techniques in order that if one of many era flows fails at some a part of the system, one other one picks it up. That’s, every thing is looped and we work in a single system. In Soviet occasions, an influence system scheme was constructed, the place every thing is ready up for comparable occasions which might be occurring at this time.”

“I believe the Russian army [consults] their energy engineers they usually clarify the right way to trigger most hurt to the power system.”

The Ukrainians aren’t both so uncomprehending or so sluggish to react. Though they proceed to inform pollsters from Kiev they need the battle to proceed – 89% in Kiev and Galicia, 69% east of the Dnieper River – their ft are doing the speaking in another way. Polish Border Guard figures – reported every day — present that within the days earlier than the Russian raids on the electrical grid started in earnest on October 10, extra Ukrainians left Poland to return house throughout the frontier than the motion from the Ukraine into Poland.

After October 10, nonetheless, the cross-border circulation has modified path. Considerably extra Ukrainians are actually shifting to Poland. Vienna press studies are suggesting in parallel that extra refugees are crossing into Austria from Poland.

In the interim, the Russian plan of assault is just not hitting the electrical grid powering the passenger trains between Kiev, Lvov, and the Polish terminal at Przemysl. As an alternative, they’ve been slicing energy to trains shifting east from Kiev in direction of the Dnieper River and the entrance from Kharkov to Odessa.

North American specialists on infrastructure warfare consider the Russian technique is to accentuate the stress on Washington, Warsaw, and Berlin to determine if they’re keen to take over the direct war-fighting because the Ukrainian sources are being exhausted – changing air defences, artillery, electrical energy provides and tools, gas, troops, and advisors. “There’s a logistical restrict for NATO to battle to the final Ukrainian”, one of many skilled sources observes. “It’s to not the final Ukrainian who might be placed on to the battlefield. It’s to the final volt to get him there, provided with meals, gas and ordnance.”

On this stage the selection is between direct battle and proxy battle.

In operational phrases the sources say there isn’t a lot selection. “Weapons and ammunition might be changed, troops educated to make use of new techniques, money transferred from Washington and Brussels for  Kiev to pay the troopers, and so forth. However the infrastructure can’t be fastened with replacements or cash. I’m certain the kitchen sink is being thrown on the nation. However how are you going to tie in German energy transformers, and many others., to the Ukrainian grid? What a large number.”

On this video clip revealed on October 29 by Boris Rozhin on his Colonel Cassad Telegram channel, a mix passenger and freight prepare – diesel powered, not electrical – is proven shifting at velocity by means of a station. The cargo, reported by Rozhin, consists of modernized T-55 tanks from Slovenia. “A complete of 28 automobiles might be delivered. The tanks actually outdated, however attributable to modernization, it can't be mentioned that it's ineffective...with correct use and an clever crew, it's nonetheless fairly harmful…shouldn't be underestimated.”  

“I’m suspecting a technique of inducing collapse and de facto give up,” a North American army supply says, “widespread dysfunction  so as to current a fait accompli to the US after the November 8 elections change the steadiness of energy in Washington. ‘You may go away now, in any other case it’s you who’ve damaged it so you’ll have to pay for what comes subsequent. We will make it right into a black gap. And we each know your knees are wobbling. Listed here are our draft armistice phrases.”

The Ukrainian Vitality Minister German Galushchenko informed the German publication Der Spiegel on October 21: “’We’re doing every thing to offer entry to electrical energy and warmth. This winter might be extraordinarily troublesome, essentially the most troublesome within the historical past of our independence’. The minister famous that on the similar time, power consumption has already been diminished by 10%, and Germany has despatched restore tools, turbines, transformers and different help to Ukraine. ‘In mild of the large-scale missile assaults, we’d like continued [support], even in massive portions….Ukraine wants air protection techniques to guard power amenities from Russian missiles and drones,’ the minister careworn.”

The Russian raids between October 22 and October 27 have diminished consumption by considerably greater than Galushchenko’s announcement of the week earlier than. Observe the Rybar Telegram channel for unofficial state of affairs reporting in English here.

The US and NATO response is extra substitution of forces from the Polish and Czech path to help Kiev and Lvov, and from the Romanian-Moldovan path to defend Odessa.

Supply: https://t.me/s/rybar
For Rybar’s commentary on US coaching of Ukrainian forces in Romania mixed with assaults on the electrical energy grid between the Odessa area and Moldovan energy crops, learn this.   For USAF focusing on for the Sevastopol  drone assaults of October 28-29, click.  For Italian radar monitoring affirmation of the operation of the Sigonella, Sicily, airbase to offer the drone steering help,  read.

“Tonight a Ukrainian assault hit the Russian naval base in Sevastopol exhausting. It isn't but clear what injury was achieved to the Russian fleet, however evidently the frigate ‘Admiral Makarov’, the present flagship of the Russian fleet within the Black Sea, was hit (what injury it suffered is just not but clear). In the course of the assault (apparently carried out by marine drones) a USAF Northrop Grumman RQ-4B (reg. 11-2046 – callsign FORTE10) was conducting a surveillance mission within the space south of Sevastopol. The plane arrived over the Black Sea at 08:30 CEST on 28 October and left at round 08:45 CEST on 29 October. Such a mission is common for USAF drones primarily based at Sigonella.” Supply: https://www.itamilradar.com// 

Requested to say if the lack of capability is now 30% or higher, DTEK chief government Timchenko said:  “I actually don’t need to problem the minister’s assertion. [I]t might be perceived in several methods. ‘Out of operation’ by way of the truth that we’ve got misplaced connection techniques – [that] is appropriate. That’s, if we wouldn’t have connections with producing stations, as I mentioned, then we’ve got misplaced 30% of the capability relating to the method of power supply to the patron. Why had been the rolling blackouts applied? As a result of the facility that was produced couldn’t be delivered to the grids.”

An American grid upkeep specialist notes that “well-off Ukrainians who can afford the associated fee are tying  in 1000’s of small turbines however this creates recent hazards to each utility crews conducting repairs and {the electrical} gear they’re engaged on. The most important hazard might be attributable to improper set up of turbines in residential or small industrial settings. Such improvised tie-ins — in lots of instances accomplished by unqualified personnel with out inspection — will result in harmful voltages and currents being backfed onto utility traces.”

Timchenko of DTEK acknowledged that the Russian technique is to depart the Ukrainian energy crops able to producing the electrical energy, however to chop off the traces connecting them to the grid, the army provide hyperlinks within the west and south, and the entrance areas the place the Ukrainian Military claims to be recapturing floor and getting ready new offensives. “There may be sufficient personal capability inside Ukraine to get by means of the winter and for regular operation. The issue is the hits and injury achieved to the infrastructure that permits this energy to be offered… I consider that we can not have some form of Armageddon, a state of affairs the place every thing might be damaged, and we are going to find yourself having a complete blackout. I don’t consider [we will have] this situation. Though I didn’t consider in a battle with Russia. The whole lot is feasible, however primarily based on how we’ve got carried out and the way the system has carried out by way of sustainability, I’ve confidence that we’ll deal with these challenges.”

“Once more, at the side of the army. I rely closely on Ukrainian Air Protection Forces. Nonetheless, even with such an enormous assault, greater than 50% of the missiles have been shot down. These are sure classes for us and for the army, the right way to take care of such conditions.”

A Canadian army supply is skeptical of Ukrainian bulletins of excessive charges of interception of Russian missiles and drones, and their republication within the London, Washington, and Berlin press. “Do you bear in mind the quip from German troopers close to the tip of World Conflict Two? I consider it went one thing like this: ‘For those who see a whole lot of planes, that’s the Individuals. For those who see fewer planes, that’s the British. For those who don’t see any planes, that’s the Luftwaffe.’ That is my impression of Ukrainian air defence.”

The Canadian supply additionally dismissed specialists being promoted in US media. “The video proof reveals police and militiamen firing wildly within the air with private weapons on the sight of the incoming drones. That’s morale boosting. It isn’t air defence.”

An skilled supply within the US provides: “The Russians know that US-NATO is throwing what it could by way of air defence weaponry on the Ukraine. In addition they know that re-supply is a matter proper throughout the west, together with the US defence trade, as a result of shares are operating down and supply simply in time is proving far too late. So, I believe the Russians are throwing low cost, simple to fabricate drones at Ukrainian targets, lots of which are shot down, whereas greater than sufficient get by means of. However the secondary mission is to exhaust restricted shares of US- NATO anti-aircraft missiles. After some days of this, the Russians change again to utilizing their costlier and correct cruise and ballistic missiles, in addition to drones, at infrastructure targets and towards depleted Ukrainian AD.”

The “secondary” mission turns into the strategic Russian goal when the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Workers are being compelled to determine whether or not to hurry extra superior missile interception techniques to the battlefields within the west and south; and in addition whether or not to danger American operators contained in the Ukraine as a result of Ukrainians can’t be trained quick sufficient.

In line with a Reuters report from the Pentagon on October 11,  “the US has accredited sending Ukraine a complete of eight Nationwide Superior Floor-to-Air Missile Techniques (NASAMS) to this point, with two anticipated to be delivered quickly and 6 extra despatched over an extended timeframe. ‘We predict that we’re on monitor to get these first two over there within the very close to future,’ [Pentagon spokesman Admiral John] Kirby said throughout a briefing for reporters. ‘We’re actually desirous about expediting the supply of NASAMS to Ukraine as quickly as we will.’”

NASAMS=Norwegian or Nationwide Superior Floor to Air Missile Techniques. The preliminary Ukrainian announcement of NASAMS deployment and coaching doesn't say which mannequin is being provided:  https://news.yahoo.com/ and https://en.wikipedia.org/
The Raytheon announcement of October 25 additionally omitted to establish the mannequin; it did qualify the quantity and acknowledged the delay in supply.  

The North American supply feedback: “How will it look when the NASAMS don’t work, simply as different US air defence schemes have again and again prior to now. Easy methods to clarify $20,000 drones beating multi-billion greenback techniques?  The issue for [Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark] Milley is acute — the right way to ship and function NASAMS with out the Russian facet capturing it?”

Russian sources consider the Stavka  technique is just not (repeat not) aimed toward Ukrainian morale. They know that is holding up, simply because the US and British airforces found was true of the Germans and Japanese throughout (and regardless of) the Allied strategic bombing campaigns of World War II.

Public opinion polling by the Kiev Worldwide Institute of Sociology, measured by phone calling between October 21 and 23, confirms this, albeit with considerably higher enthusiasm for the battle from the Galicians and people in Kiev who’re benefitting from the overseas cashflows:

Supply: https://www.kiis.com.ua/
“In our opinion, a extra important influence on representativeness might be both a usually decrease willingness of residents with ‘pro-Russian’ attitudes to take part in surveys, or the insincerity of those that did participate within the survey (bearing in mind the plain info and prevailing opinions within the media relating to the Russian invasion , some residents won't need to say what they actually assume ‘in public’). If to speak in regards to the basic willingness of respondents to take part within the survey, then in current surveys we see both the identical indicators or considerably decrease (though it ought to be borne in thoughts that the decrease willingness to take part of ‘pro-Russian’ residents might be compensated by the upper willingness to take part of ‘pro-Ukrainian’-minded residents).”

As this Kiev qualifier concedes, strolling could also be a greater measure of Ukrainian sentiment than speaking. However Russian sources interpret the Stavka technique as aimed on the politically weak governments in Warsaw, Berlin, Paris and London; they’re already dealing with swelling home protests at spending an increasing number of cash on the Ukrainians, whereas price range cuts are being imposed on home welfare and consumption, together with what the French are calling pénurie de carburant.  

“If Ukrainian refugee flows speed up – and they’ll when this October’s unusually heat temperatures come to an finish – then the political decisions for battle or peace will sharpen,” a Moscow supply says.

In the interim, the Polish Border Guard arrival and exit knowledge, issued every day,  present comparatively steady and equal flows of Ukrainians into Poland and of these returning house. Nevertheless, the every day figures additionally  reveal that following the October 10 raids towards the electrical grid there was a small enhance in cross-border motion into Poland, accompanied by a bigger drop within the variety of Ukrainians who had beforehand been crossing to return house and have opted to remain in Poland.

Supply: https://twitter.com/

Counting October 1 by means of 29, a complete of 695,700 Ukrainians crossed the border into Poland; that is a median of 23,990 per day. Nevertheless, on the times from October 11 by means of 16, the every day influx jumped to between 25,000 and 26,000. This is a rise of 5.5%.

Counting the repatriation actions, a complete of 677,200 Ukrainians crossed from Poland into the Ukraine for a median of 23,352 per day. Between October 11 and 16, this outflow dropped to 17,300 on the primary day, and averaged 18,033 over the six days. That was a decline of twenty-two.8%.

Sources in Warsaw say they’re anticipating the influx to speed up with the onset of winter, and the outflow to shrink. Mixed with the Russian marketing campaign towards the electrical grid, the impact could also be one other overwhelming refugee drawback inside Poland, and in addition westwards into Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary.

MAP OF UKRAINIAN POPULATION MOVEMENTS SINCE FEBRUARY 24, 2022

Supply: https://frontex.europa.eu/

Studying the every day Rybar report on the Russian operations, and the every day tweet from the Polish Board Guard, and it’ll change into clear why the passenger trains, bus and automobile routes out of Galicia and into Poland will proceed to stay open.

[*] A Brookings report, issued in October this yr, reveals that the Biden White Home workers turnover within the first two years of the administration has been extra fast than any predecessor prior to now forty years – and this isn’t counting but departures probably after the November 8 elections.   

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