2:00PM Water Cooler 9/15/2022 | bare capitalism


Purple-throated Loon, Norðurland eystra, Iceland. A number of birds, most very excited. I feel geese and gulls, apart from the loons?

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

As common on monopolies, Stoller nails it:

And:

“Home members roll out bipartisan election invoice geared toward stopping future coups” [The Hill]. “Each payments are geared toward stopping future coup makes an attempt by clarifying the restricted position of the vp in counting Electoral School votes, elevating the edge for members of Congress to object to states’ presidential electors, beefing up legal guidelines round certifying elections for the rightful winner and selling an orderly presidential transition.” • There’s one thing a bit of odd about outlawing a coup…..

“Posse Comitatus, Made Respectable” [John Ganz]. “I’ve come to 2 robust, however I really feel unavoidable, conclusions concerning the Claremont Institute, the California-based right-wing assume tank that provides Trumpism with its mental cadre: One, that they’re trying the creation of a distinctly American type of fascism that studiously avoids references to European forebears, and two, they’ve grow to be primarily a seditious conspiracy in opposition to the American folks. I don’t use this rhetoric calmly; I notice it may well sound a bit excessive, even fevered and crankish, however every part else reads like hedging or euphemism. Claremont has performed an instigating and integral half in the entire most authoritarian and menacing parts of the Trump period: from the wild proposals to finish birthright citizenship and abrogate the 14th Modification, to the creation and dissemination of “Cease the Steal Propaganda,” to persistent outreach and legitimation of the extreme-right fringe, after which to offering the spurious authorized structure of the January 6 putsch try. However one of many Institute’s most regarding initiatives but is their “Sheriff’s Fellowship,” a direct effort to bind regulation enforcement to their ideological program. Based in 2021, the Sheriff’s Fellowship function is described in fairly partisan however nonetheless largely benign-sounding language on the Institute’s website as a high-minded course in political concept and historical past for the native police.” • What may go fallacious…

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#COVID19

• Maskstravaganza: Life’s little ironies:

That is humorous. However, readers, is it true?

• Maskstravaganza: “Invoice Hader Masks Up At Emmys And Followers Can’t Cowl Up Their Approval” [HuffPo]. The deck: “‘We stan a secure king resisting peer strain within the 12 months 2022!’ one particular person tweeted concerning the “Barry” star.” • True, Hader is immuno-compromised. However I dare to hope some pushback from pro-maskers is having an impact.

• Maskstravaganza: “Experimental Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Content material in Inhaled Air With or With out Face Masks in Wholesome Youngsters” [JAMA]. • RETRACTED (in case you see anybody quoting it).

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• A really attention-grabbing FOIA, albeit from Canada:

I imagine we have now alert reader antidlc is engaged in a similar effort; maybe this may assist.

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“A Disturbing Preprint About Lengthy COVID” [Mike the Mad Biologist]. “Even when we assume that many of the noticed impact is both misreporting, ascertainment bias or background noise–and concerning the latter, do we actually assume fifteen % of 25-34 12 months outdated adults undergo from lengthy COVID like signs for another purpose?–it nonetheless would imply one to 2 % of individuals undergo from fatigue, problem concentrating, or shortness of breath.” • Hmm.

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When you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most essential, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “community levels” assume. However these are the numbers we have now.

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Case Rely

Lambert right here: I suppose when Johns Hopkins takes these numbers away, I’m going to need to rethink this part.

Case rely for the United States:

Instances are undercounted, one supply saying by a factor of six, Gottlieb thinking we only pick up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the nominal case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the actual degree of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~73,400. Immediately, it’s ~70,000 and 70,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 420,000. (Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. When you take a look at the Fauci line, you will note that regardless of the bleating and yammering about Covid being “over,” we have now solely only in the near past reached the (nominal) case degree of November 1, 2021, and we’re very removed from that of July 1, 2021. And the actual degree is way worse.

Lambert right here: The autumn in case rely appears to be like spectacular sufficient. What the Fauci Line reveals, nonetheless, is that we have now finally achieved the extent of the preliminary peak, when New York was storing the our bodies in fridge vans. So the endzone celebrations are, to my thoughts, untimely. Not that anybody will throw a flag. After all, the actual story is within the charts for California and the South. See beneath.

Regional case count for 4 weeks:

The South:

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

South Carolina appears to have halted processing till they’ll work out what’s occurring.

The West:

Wastewater

SITE DOWN Wastewater information (CDC), September 10:

For grins, September 9:

Lambert right here: If the location doens’t load in 5 minutes, it’s not good for something, is it?

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker, September 9:

2.8%. Ought to be a number one indicator, if Walgreen’s prospects are an sufficient nationwide proxy. Fascinating who’s not (particularly the grain belt) and who’s not.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor solution to assess private danger. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t wish to get. Even if you’re not hospitalized, you possibly can undergo from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. For these causes, case counts — identified to be underestimated, because of dwelling check kits — deserve to face alone as a quantity to be tracked, regardless of how a lot the political operatives in CDC management wish to obfuscate it. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) continues to be up and being taken critically verges on the prison. Use the neighborhood transmission instantly beneath.

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser information, by county (CDC), September 9:

I suppose that if case counts are certainly degree, it’s possible there could be few fast risers.

Earlier Fast Riser information:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), September 14:

Sea of inexperienced!

NOTE: Fast Riser and Hospitalization information are up to date Wednesdays and Fridays.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does nevertheless it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), September 1:

Nonetheless no signal of BA.2.75 at Walgreens, regardless of its success in India and presence in Bay Area wastewater.

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), August 20 (Nowcast off):

Nonetheless no signal of BA.2.75. I checked out all of the areas, too.

BA.2.75 in Ontario and Quebec, Canada:

Deaths

Loss of life fee (Our World in Data):

Lambert right here: It’s attention-grabbing that the deaths per 100,000 curve — with its curious current flattening — has roughly the identical form because the case curve, suggesting {that a} “Biden Curve” would have roughly the identical form because the case rely curve, versus the straight line I’m drawing for the present degree.

Total: 1,077,477 – 1,076,343 = 1134 (1134 * 365 = 413,910, which is at present’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, thought they’ll discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting new claims for unemployment advantages decreased by 5 thousand to 213,000 within the week that ended September tenth, properly beneath market expectations of 226,000. It was the bottom variety of weekly jobless claims because the last week of Might, highlighting a good labor market and giving the Fed extra space for aggressive rate of interest hikes.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US fell to -9.9 in September of 2022 from 6.2 in August, lacking market expectations of two.8. The indicator for present exercise returned to unfavourable territory, the brand new orders index remained unfavourable, and the shipments index additionally declined however remained constructive.”

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed 30 factors to -1.5 in August 2022, beating market expectations of -13. New orders elevated, and shipments expanded considerably. Supply instances had been regular whereas inventories picked up. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest enhance in employment and no change within the common workweek.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Manufacturing in the US elevated 3.70 % year-on-year in August of 2022. It’s the smallest annual enhance in seven months.”

* * *

The Bezzle:

Yeah, the place are the web3 bros? It’s gone quiet all of a sudden.

The Bezzle: “‘Scary simple. Sketchy as hell.’: How startups are pushing Adderall on TikTok” [Vox]. • Ugh, however exhausting to get enthusiastic about TikTok after what Massive Pharma and the college programs have alread accomplished.

Tech: “Google’s ‘Relaxation and Vest’ Days for Senior Staff Are Over, Says the CEO. It’s a Good Thought” [Inc.]. “With looming recessions and inflationary pressures, there’s rising concern of slower development and fiercer competitors. On the convention, Pichai talked about TikTok and different entrants within the Chinese language market. Issues that they didn’t have to consider two years in the past are all of a sudden changing into actual points for the massive weapons. There will likely be numerous options put in place to search out efficiencies and climate this financial downtown. One of many approaches simply could also be a concerted effort in uncovering the resters-and-vesters and calling them out. Or eliminating them altogether.” • When you assume Google sucks now, simply wait ’til the coders don’t get free lunches and massages any extra.

The Bezzle:

And one other:

My reply would have been: “Sufficient suckers.”

* * *

Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 42 Worry (earlier shut: 41 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 41 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 15 at 1:37 PM EDT.

Bible Nook

“Archaeologists Uncover Purple Pens Gospel Writers Used To Write Phrases Of Christ” [Babylon Bee]. “‘Bible students have been trying to find this for hundreds of years,’ stated head archaeologist Dr. Max Macon. ‘We knew that if the New Testomony document is reliable, then the crimson pens the gospel writers used to jot down the phrases of Christ needed to be round right here someplace. And now we as soon as once more have the Bible’s account confirmed to be 100% dependable.’”

The 420

“How Weed Turned the New OxyContin” [The Tablet]. “Within the period of legalized weed, the drug you consider as ‘hashish’ can hardly be referred to as marijuana in any respect. The sorts of hashish merchandise which can be offered on-line and at dispensaries include no precise plant matter. They’re made by placing pulverized marijuana right into a tube and operating butane, propane, ethanol, or carbon dioxide via it, which separates the THC from the remainder of the plant. The top product is a wax that may be 70% to 80% THC. That wax can then be put in a vacuum oven and additional concentrated into oils which can be as a lot as 95% and even 99% THC. Often known as ‘dabs,’ that is what folks put of their vape pens, and in states like California and Colorado it’s completely authorized and simply obtainable to youngsters. ‘There are not any caps on efficiency,’ stated Stack. When you’re over 30 years outdated and also you used to smoke weed once you had been a youngster, the strongest you had been smoking was most likely 20% THC. Immediately, youngsters are ‘dabbing’ a product that’s three, 4, or 5 instances stronger, and are sometimes doing so a number of instances a day. At that degree of efficiency, the affect of the drug on a consumer’s mind belongs to a wholly totally different class of danger than smoking a joint or taking a bong rip of even an intensively bred marijuana flower. It’s extremely addictive, and over time, there’s a big probability it may well drive you insane.” • I’m not seeing any hyperlinks in that final sentence, and the entire thing reads like “Reefer Insanity” another time:

That stated, it was predictable that corporatizing hashish — actually not the imaginative and prescient I had of “legalization,” again within the day — would deliver in poor health results. OxyContin degree results? I’d must see extra proof. Readers, has anybody… heard concerning the results of the brand new “merchandise”?

Our Famously Free Press

Hmm:

The Gallery

The restrict case of a queue:

Class Warfare

“Financial reflections on the Fall of Constantinople” [globalinequality]. “The studying of Jap Mediterranean historical past is extraordinarily instructive for a manner wherein we must always consider commerce. A benevolent strategy, beginning with Ricardo, at all times regarded commerce as an exercise freely undertaken by two events with no extra-economic compulsion. No reader of historical past of the Jap Roman Empire can share that view. Commerce and army underpinning of it went hand-in-hand. That is at its most blatant not in massive empires which anyway needed to have armies however in buying and selling city-states like Venice and Genoa. When you imagine that commerce is all about peace there could be no purpose why these city-states needed to preserve massive naval fleets, battle battles, conquer islands, negotiate, beneath army menace, particular rights to tariff-free imports and exports. Commerce, debt and the military at all times moved collectively. No vacationer to any Greek island at present will fail to watch massive Venetian and Genoan fortresses that would not have been constructed with out cash and labor but in addition and not using a naval presence that allowed the management or conquest of the islands within the first place.”

Information of the Wired

“The right way to nurture a private library” [Psyche]. “Many people develop our collections on a book-by-book foundation: a quantity catches our curiosity in a bookstore, we purchase and browse it, stick it on a shelf, and repeat. Considering like a librarian is about taking a step again to contemplate your assortment as a complete, together with what you add to it and why. A well-tended library is sort of a panorama, with its valley of crime novels, its peaks of reference texts, its shores of memoirs. Collectively, all these particular person titles grow to be a part of one thing better, kind one thing with emergent properties, one thing completely distinctive to you.”

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are high-quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: “This doesn’t appear like fairly just like the Hen of Paradise I see throughout California, together with in my yard, however that’s the title I’m going with. It’s within the greenhouse on the Sherman Library and Gardens in Newport Seashore, California.”

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